Challenges of the 2025 energy agenda

The energy transition faces significant challenges in the context of the current global polycrisis. According to a recent article by Ignacio Lara, the debts and challenges of the energy agenda will not only persist in 2025, but could be exacerbated by inaction or setbacks by some governments. In this regard, it identifies five key issues that will mark the discussion in the coming year.

Firstly, climate change continues to be a priority on the energy agenda. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, global greenhouse gas emissions will reach a record 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year. However, these emissions are not evenly distributed, with 77% coming from the G20 countries. Consequently, a coordinated effort is required to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035, with particular responsibility for the most polluting economies.

Secondly, geopolitical conflicts pose a threat to global energy security. There are currently 56 active armed conflicts that affect the stability of energy supply and generate uncertainty for investments. In addition, competition between countries for control of energy routes, such as the NATO-L transatlantic interconnection project, reflects how energy security often trumps climate and sustainability priorities.

Moreover, technological innovation and financing are key elements to accelerate the energy transition. Although there has been a 50% increase in investment in clean technologies by 2023, the International Energy Agency warns that efforts need to be redoubled to ensure global deployment. However, the concentration of technological advances in regions such as China, the United States and the European Union highlights the need for policies that encourage a more equitable distribution of these solutions.

In addition, persistent dependence on fossil fuels remains an obstacle to the energy transition. Despite the growth of renewable energy, 81.5% of the primary energy consumed in 2023 came from oil, coal and natural gas. For this reason, multilateral forums such as COP30, to be held in Brazil, will be crucial for countries to present more ambitious decarbonisation commitments and progressively abandon the use of these resources.

Finally, the article highlights that the increase in demand for critical minerals, such as lithium and cobalt, poses additional challenges in terms of sustainability. As renewable energy generation capacity grows, it is imperative to ensure that the extraction of these resources does not generate new inequalities and environmental impacts in developing countries.

In all, 2025 looks set to be a key year for defining the direction of the energy transition. According to Lara, cooperation and coordination between governments and other actors will be crucial to achieve significant progress and prevent development and sustainability gaps from widening even further.

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